Syrien: Verliert Assad die Kontrolle über Aleppo?

Joshua Landis, amerikanischer Syrien-Experte, hat in seinem blog "Syria Comment", http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/ den Brief eines Freundes aus Aleppo veröffentlicht, den wir hier wegen seiner Bedeutung für die Entwicklungen in Syrien wiedergeben. Aleppo, Syriens zweitwichtigste Stadt und größtes Handels- und Geschäftszentrum ist seit vielen Monaten umringt von syrischen Sicherheitskräften, die für ein ruhiges und weitgehend normales Leben in der Stadt sorgten.
Aleppo ist ein Spiegelbild der syrischen Bevölkerungsstruktur. Hier leben Sunniten, Alewiten, Christen, Kurden und andere Minderheiten seit langem friedlich zusammen, Die syrische Geschäftswelt, viele vermögende Sunniten darunter, stand lange treu zu Assad, weil sie ihm einen Garanten für Stabilität sahen, der die Voraussetzung für ein lukratives Geschäftsleben schaffte. Ähnlich ist die Situation im Zentrum von Damaskus. Kenner der syrischen Szene ist seit vielen Monaten klar, solange die Bevölkerung von Damaskus und Aleppo nicht gegen Assad rebelliert, besitzt das Regime eine Überlebenschance. Doch in Aleppo beginnt es - wie der Beitrag aus der Stadt zeigt, zu kriseln.

Landis leitet den Brief mit folgendem Satz ein: "On February 27, a number of local residents were killed by the military, setting off protests and violent confrontations with local security."

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Tuesday, March 6th, 2012
A friend from Aleppo wrote me over the weekend that he believes that the northern suburbs of Aleppo are falling out of government control. In particular, the poorer towns of Azaz, Hreitan, and Anadan, which are on the road to Turkey, have been taken over by opposition groups. On February 27, a number of local residents were killed by the military, setting off protests and violent confrontations with local security. He does not believe the regime’s end is imminent because the armed groups are not centrally organized. All the same, the migration of neighborhoods out of government control is unceasing. Although the government has retaken Homs, it is losing Aleppo and the broader North, an area that has long been fertile ground for Islamist currents.
He writes:

I just had a long conversation with friends and family in Aleppo. It may not be long before the city joins the revolution, I believe. My father could not travel by car to the border with Turkey. No driver dares take the roads north any longer. The drive to Turkey is only a half-hour. The working-class neighborhoods of Azaz, Hreitan and Anadan have largely fallen out of government control. Friends who own factories in the industrial regions outside of Aleppo complain that for a week now they have been unable to visit them. Lack of security, frequent anti-regime demonstrations and clashes between militants and the army make the excursion impossible.
I am a partner in one Aleppo factory that was attacked Sunday night (March 4). The attackers beat up the two night security guards and bound them. They then lifted the whole safe box and carried it out of the factory. Thankfully, the safe only contained syp 350,000 and not more. Also thankfully they did not burn the place down, as has happened to some Aleppo factory owners.
The fact that neighborhoods, such as Azaz, Hreitan and Anadan have fallen out of government control is significant because cars can no longer travel, even in daylight, to Turkey from Aleppo. The entire boarder area is becoming unsafe. This is much worse than Baba Amr or Khaldiye falling out of government control from the point of view of security because Turkey is the base for the Free Syrian Army, arms exports into Syria, and most opposition groups.
To make maters worse, the Syrian Pound has fallen to 83 to the dollar. This means that the net worth of every Syrian has fallen by over 70% since the beginning of the uprising. People do not have enough to eat. More than half the country is living on two dollars a day or less. Hunger and fear are spreading.
Even the middle and upper classes that live in the city centers are beginning to panic and look for a way out of the country. Plane flights to Lebanon from Aleppo are booked for the next month. The exodus has begun.
This is the first real breakdown of Aleppo control. My sister says law and order is deteriorating in the center of Aleppo as well. Armed elements are kidnapping folks for ransom, breaking into houses, and beating people up and stealing their jewelry and money. My wife’s relative, the Gharo family, was invaded in Aleppo today. A guy rang the intercom and said he was from the security service. He was buzzed in and went upstairs to their apartment. When the Gharos opened the door, a group of thugs went in, grabbed their young son and held a knife to his neck and demanded every valuable in the apartment. When they got their loot, they fled!
Government forces are doing their share of damage. Michael Aswad, a patriach of a prominent Christian family, was killed by the security service last week, apparently by accident when he didn’t stop the taxi he was in as he entered the security zone around his apartment. A high-ranking official lives in his apartment. His death has mortified upper-class Aleppines because he was killed in the city center.
The ability of the government to supply basic goods and services has crumbled. Now security is evaporating. More and more Syrians realize that the state is losing control and are taking maters into their own hands.